MINISO Beats Forecasts, Pivots to In-House IP to Emulate Pop Mart's Success
MINISO Group Holding Limited reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year outlook, signaling a business recovery while unveiling a strategic pivot toward developing its own intellectual property to challenge rivals in the booming art toy market.
The budget lifestyle retailer’s second-quarter revenue and profit for 2025 topped analyst estimates, driven by the first positive same-store sales growth in a year. Following the strong performance, MINISO boosted its full-year 2025 revenue growth forecast to at least 25%, up from a previous projection of not less than 22.8%.
In a significant strategic shift, CEO Ye Guofu declared a new "dual IP" approach that combines licensed international brands with a growing portfolio of proprietary characters, explicitly benchmarking the company against the success of Pop Mart International Group Ltd. Ye stated Pop Mart’s strong performance proves the art toy market is “just getting started” in China, signaling a ripe opportunity.
The move marks MINISO's ambition to create new, sustainable growth drivers beyond its traditional retail model. Following the announcement, Nomura raised its price target on the company's New York-listed shares, reflecting confidence in management's ability to balance store expansion, sales growth, and strategic investments in its budding IP ecosystem.
Recovery Gains Momentum
MINISO’s recovery appears to be solidifying. For the first half of 2025, the company posted revenue of 9.393 billion yuan (US$1.29 billion), a 21.1% increase year-over-year. Second-quarter revenue grew 23.1% to 4.97 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit for the quarter rose 10.6% to 692 million yuan.
Nomura analysts noted that the second-quarter results beat consensus, with revenue coming in 3% higher than expected, while operating profit and net profit surpassed estimates by 12% and 8%, respectively. A key driver was a positive turn in same-store sales for the first time in four quarters. While the core MINISO brand's same-store sales were flat, the TOP TOY brand saw sales improve to low-single-digit growth.
The improvement was broad-based geographically. Same-store sales in mainland China have already returned to positive growth, a trend the company expects to continue through the year. The decline in overseas same-store sales narrowed from a mid-to-high single-digit drop in the first quarter to a low-single-digit slide in the second, with markets in Europe and North America posting mid-to-high single-digit growth.
A Strategic Bet on In-House Brands
At the heart of the company’s new strategy is the creation of its own valuable IP assets. CEO Ye Guofu said MINISO would pursue a "dual IP" strategy, leveraging both its extensive experience with international licensed brands and its new focus on developing homegrown characters. "Pop Mart's performance is excellent, and we are very happy to see it," Ye said on an earnings call. "It shows two things: first, consumers are buying, and second, the capital market is buying in."
Ye expressed confidence that MINISO is well-positioned to compete. He argued that years of collaborating with global IP holders have given the company a unique advantage in product development, marketing, and channel management. The missing piece, he stated, has been proprietary IP. "With our unique advantages in full category coverage, omni-channel penetration, global layout, and full-link operation, MINISO will also occupy a leading position in China's IP market," he added.
Building an IP Portfolio
MINISO has already taken concrete steps to build its IP stable. The company began its proprietary IP initiative six months ago and has since signed its first nine art toy artists. The first character from this initiative, "You You Jiang," was launched in June of 2025.
More significantly, MINISO’s TOP TOY unit acquired a controlling 51% stake in toy company HiTOY for 5.1 million yuan in the first half of the year. The deal brings three core IPs—Nommi, Honey , and MayMei—into MINISO's fold. HiTOY boasts annual sales of over 100 million yuan, providing an immediate revenue stream and an established IP portfolio. A product line based on one of the new IPs, the "Nommi a mouthful of sweetness" series, was launched in the first half.
Analyst View and Lingering Questions
Analysts have reacted positively to the earnings beat and strategic shift. Nomura raised its 2025-2027 revenue and profit forecasts for MINISO by 3-4% and 3-7%, respectively. The bank lifted its price target on the stock from 24.20to24.20to25.50, implying a 22% upside from current levels and maintaining its "Buy" rating.
However, some uncertainty remains. Analysts caution that operating a proprietary IP business requires a different skill set from licensing third-party brands. Whether MINISO's new strategy can successfully evolve into a sustainable driver of long-term sales growth and justify its ambitious comparison to Pop Mart will be a key factor for investors to monitor.