China’s consumer, robotics, and EV sectors are entering a more uneven phase. Pop Mart’s domestic momentum remains strong despite cooling US demand, Chinese humanoid robot makers are landing major Japanese partnerships, Morgan Stanley is warning of intensifying EV homogenization, and JD.com’s return to operating profit is masking deeper structural pressure.

Pop Mart’s China Boom Can’t Fully Offset US Cooling

Pop Mart reported Q1 revenue growth of 75%–80% year-over-year, with mainland China online sales surging more than 150%. However, US credit card data showed April sales falling 43% after a 46% decline in March.

The Americas region still delivered 55%–60% Q1 growth, suggesting high-frequency tracking data may be understating actual sales due to cash purchases and gift card usage.

Why it matters:
The US collectible toy frenzy appears to be cooling after the Labubu craze. Secondary-market prices for Labubu products in the US have reportedly dropped 54%, while search interest and app engagement are weakening. In contrast, China demand remains strong, with Tmall and Douyin April sales accelerating nearly 96% year-over-year.

Wall Street is increasingly divided on valuation. JPMorgan maintains a HK$350 target, while Goldman Sachs sits at HK$184, reflecting uncertainty over whether Pop Mart can transition from viral growth to sustainable global expansion.

Japanese Giants Are Turning to Chinese Humanoid Robots

Within a month, Japanese companies including Hitachi Group, Honda Trading, and Japan Airlines partnered with Chinese robotics company UBTECH Robotics to deploy humanoid robots across factories, logistics, and airport operations.

Japan Airlines plans to use humanoids for baggage handling and passenger services, while Hitachi is testing robots in semiconductors, elevators, and healthcare scenarios.

Why it matters:
The shift is symbolically significant. Japan once led humanoid robotics through projects like ASIMO, but commercialization is increasingly favoring Chinese firms with stronger manufacturing ecosystems and faster iteration cycles.

Chinese robotics companies benefit from dense EV, drone, and electronics supply chains across the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. That industrial scale is now translating into AI training advantages and faster deployment capability.

The broader trend suggests China’s robotics sector is evolving beyond hardware manufacturing toward software and AI-driven industrial platforms.

Morgan Stanley Warns China EV Market Is Becoming Too Similar

Morgan Stanley cut price targets for several major Chinese EV makers, citing slowing domestic demand and increasing product homogenization after the Beijing Auto Show.

The bank now expects exports to become the industry’s primary growth engine, forecasting China NEV exports to jump 88% to 4.5 million units.

Why it matters:
Attempts to curb destructive price wars may not be reducing competition. Instead, automakers are flooding the market with increasingly similar models, encouraging consumers to delay purchases while waiting for better technology or pricing.

Morgan Stanley sees four main differentiation drivers ahead:

• Overseas expansion
• AI and autonomous driving
• Premium vehicle mix upgrades
• Strategic partnerships such as XPeng and Volkswagen collaborations

Among major names, XPeng remains Morgan Stanley’s preferred pick despite lower targets, while NIO’s breakeven timeline was moved forward to 2027. BYD remains Overweight, though earnings forecasts were trimmed.

JD.com Returns to Operating Profit, but Pressure Is Building

JD.com posted Q1 operating profit of RMB 3.8 billion after three straight quarterly losses, but net profit still fell 53.2% year-over-year.

Revenue rose just 4.9%, while retail sales—still the core of JD’s business—grew only 1.8%. Electronics and home appliances declined 8.4% as subsidy support weakened.

Why it matters:
JD.com’s recovery increasingly looks cost-driven rather than demand-driven.

Its newer businesses—including food delivery, Jingxi, and overseas expansion—remain deeply unprofitable. Food delivery faces entrenched competition from Meituan and Ele.me, while Jingxi continues battling Pinduoduo in lower-tier markets.

Meanwhile, European expansion through JOYBUY and a potential CECONOMY acquisition could require years of additional investment.

JD Logistics remains a bright spot, delivering 29% revenue growth and more than RMB 1 billion in operating profit, but it is still insufficient to offset broader group-level pressures.

What to watch next:
Pop Mart’s overseas demand normalization, Chinese humanoid robot commercialization, whether EV exports can sustain margins, and JD.com’s ability to improve unit economics before cash burn becomes a larger investor concern.