Pop Mart Faces Diverging Signals as Q1 Revenue Surge Meets US Data Drop
A stark divergence between blowout first-quarter earnings and deteriorating high-frequency data is creating a complex outlook for Pop Mart. While the Chinese toymaker posted a 75% to 80% revenue increase in the first quarter, a sharp 43% year-over-year decline in April US credit card transactions is signaling potential headwinds for the remainder of 2026.
The first-quarter performance broadly exceeded market expectations. Revenue in mainland China jumped 100% to 105%, driven by a 150% to 155% surge in online channels. The Americas region recorded a 55% to 60% revenue increase, exposing structural flaws in US credit card tracking data. That high-frequency metric had erroneously indicated only low single-digit growth for the quarter, likely missing cash transactions, gift card usage, and channel shifts.
Despite the Q1 beat, investors are confronting a challenging second quarter. Bloomberg credit card data shows Pop Mart's US sales fell about 43% in April, following a 46% drop in March. This contraction is primarily driven by a high base effect from the highly successful launch of the third Labubu plush series in the second quarter of 2025.
Adding to the pressure, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its 2026 US consumer disposable cash flow growth forecast to 3.7% from 4.2%, pointing to a broader spending pullback. Secondary indicators reflect this localized cooling: Labubu resale prices in the US have dropped by roughly 54%, Google search trends have dipped, and monthly active users on the company's app have declined. In contrast, search trends and user engagement across Europe and Southeast Asia remain stable.
In China, operational momentum remains robust but shows signs of normalization. Combined April sales on Tmall and Douyin accelerated to a 96% year-over-year increase, up from 67% in March. However, secondary market premiums—often a leading indicator for intellectual property momentum—are shrinking. Core Labubu series are currently trading at a 30% to 40% discount in the resale market, while other IPs like Molly, Crybaby, and Dimoo are also seeing slight discount expansions.
Conversely, the company's broader ecosystem investments continue to yield results. The upgraded Popland theme park in Beijing saw sold-out ticketing during the early May holiday, with average visitor dwell time extending from three hours to over six hours. Additionally, a recently launched limited-edition Labubu refrigerator, priced at RMB 5,999 yuan (US$845), is already commanding a mid-single-digit premium in the secondary market.
The conflicting data points have resulted in a significant divergence among Wall Street analysts regarding Pop Mart’s valuation. JPMorgan maintains an overweight rating with a HK$350 price target, while Goldman Sachs holds a neutral rating with a HK$184 target. Investors are now looking for greater clarity on regional growth targets, the upcoming IP pipeline, and 2026 margin guidance.
Related Coverage:
POP MART Reports 204% Revenue Surge Driven by LABUBU Mania and Global Expansion