Nomura Doubts BYD’s Ultra-Fast Battery Can Win China’s EV Price War
BYD has launched its second-generation Blade Battery, a significant technological milestone promising to dramatically reduce charging times to levels comparable with refueling a gasoline car. However, a post-event analysis from Nomura suggests that while the innovation is a major positive, it may not be a silver bullet to resolve the complex competitive pressures the automaker faces, particularly in the critical sub-RMB 150,000 yuan (US$20,800) market segment.
At a technology event on March 5, BYD revealed that its new battery can charge from 10% to 70% in just five minutes and from 10% to 97% in nine minutes under normal temperatures. The battery also demonstrates strong performance in cold climates, achieving a 20% to 97% charge in 12 minutes at minus 20 degrees Celsius. The technology enables a pure electric CLTC range of over 1,000 kilometers on upcoming models like the premium Denza Z9GT.
In a research note, analysts at Nomura acknowledged that the breakthrough directly addresses key consumer concerns around charging speed and efficiency, which could help BYD capture more orders. Despite the positive development, the investment bank cautioned that the new technology alone is "not good enough to turn around the market competition dynamics for BYD at one take," maintaining a "Buy" rating on the company's stock.
The core of Nomura’s cautious outlook lies in the deep-seated challenges BYD confronts in China's intensely competitive market. The launch event focused on new and facelifted models priced above the RMB 150,000 threshold, leaving a strategic gap in the company’s lower-priced plug-in hybrid (PHEV) portfolio, which has historically been a key pillar of its market dominance.
Charging Times Nearing Gasoline Refuels
The Blade Battery 2.0 represents BYD’s most significant battery update since the technology was first introduced in 2020. The performance metrics effectively place electric vehicles on par with internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in terms of refueling efficiency. To support the battery's capabilities, BYD also announced a new integrated system for energy storage and charging.
To facilitate the ultra-fast charging experience, the company plans an aggressive expansion of its infrastructure. BYD aims to have 20,000 super-fast charging stations operational by the end of 2026, a substantial increase from the 4,239 stations currently available. The plan includes deploying 2,000 stations along highways and partnering with existing operators for another 18,000. A slate of new models, including the Denza Z9GT, Great Tang BEV, and Song Ultra, will be the first to feature the new battery.
PHEV Competition in Budget Segment Remains Key Challenge
While the battery technology is impressive, Nomura's analysis highlights that BYD's most pressing challenges extend beyond the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market. The firm points to increasing competition in the PHEV segment, especially for vehicles priced below RMB 150,000, an area where BYD has long held a strong leadership position.
The research note observed a "limited update for PHEV models and technology" during the launch event, with all newly showcased vehicles starting at or above the RMB 150,000 mark. Nomura believes BYD will "need to put more effort into its PHEV product mix or technology and those models below CNY150k market" to defend its market share against aggressive rivals.
A Positive Step, But Not a Decisive Blow, Nomura Says
Nomura concludes that while the Blade Battery 2.0 is a strong offensive move, its immediate impact may be tempered by two factors. Firstly, it will take time for BYD to build out its charging network across China before a significant number of customers can consistently access the ultra-fast charging experience.
More importantly, the firm views BYD's competitive situation as more complicated than a single technology can solve. The market leader faces pressure from multiple fronts, and the lack of updates for its entry-level segment is a notable concern. Nomura suggests that "more effort will be needed, either from the technology side or from 2026 new models update" and advises investors to remain patient and monitor the company's subsequent strategic moves in the market.