Xiaomi Shipment Target Cut 20% on Strong iPhone 17 Sales, Analyst Says
An influential analyst has cut shipment forecasts for Xiaomi Corp.’s new flagship smartphone by 20%, citing stronger-than-expected competition from Apple's latest iPhone and raising questions about the Chinese company's high-stakes bid to challenge its U.S. rival.
TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo lowered his target for the total shipments of the Xiaomi 17 series to below 8 million units, down from an original goal of about 10 million, according to a research note released Friday. The new forecast implies shipments for the new series could fall short of the approximately 8 million units sold of its predecessor, the Xiaomi 15.
The revision is primarily driven by surprisingly robust sales of Apple Inc.’s standard iPhone 17 model in the crucial Chinese market. The news sent shares of Xiaomi Corp tumbling 2.6% in Hong Kong trading.
The forecast deals an early blow to Xiaomi’s bold strategy, unveiled just days ago, to directly compete with Apple. The company intentionally skipped the number "16" for its new lineup to position the "17 series" as a generational peer to the iPhone.
Weaker Demand for Standard Model
According to Kuo’s analysis, a significant shift in the sales mix is behind the downgraded forecast. Xiaomi had initially projected its standard Xiaomi 17 model would account for 50-55% of the series' total sales. However, initial sales data indicates its share is only around 15-20%.
While orders for the more expensive Pro and Pro Max versions have increased, the surge in the high-end models has not been enough to offset the weaker-than-anticipated performance of the base model. This suggests a potential miscalculation of consumer demand in the highly competitive smartphone landscape.
Record-Breaking Launch
Despite the analyst’s concerns, Xiaomi projects confidence and points to a successful launch. The company’s public relations head, Wang Hua, stated that the Xiaomi 17 series set new sales and revenue records for any new smartphone series launch in 2025 within its first five minutes on the market.
Chief Executive Officer Lei Jun added that the top-tier Xiaomi 17 Pro Max model alone broke the single-day, single-model sales and revenue records for any smartphone in China this year, and that it accounted for over 50% of the series' sales. The company has aggressively priced the lineup, which debuted on September 25, with the standard model starting at 4,499 yuan (US$621) and the Pro version priced 4,000 yuan below Apple's iPhone 17 Pro. At the launch, Lei stated that while the iPhone 17 is a strong device, the Xiaomi 17 surpasses it in many hardware specifications, as it is the first to feature the 5th generation Snapdragon 8 chip built on a 3nm process.
A 'Long-Distance Race' Against Apple
The current market feedback underscores the challenge of Xiaomi’s long-term ambition. Lei recently described the company's transformation from an "opportunity-driven" internet firm to a "mission-driven hardcore tech company," pledging to invest 200 billion yuan (US$27.6 billion) in research and development over the next five years to match and eventually surpass Apple.
He has framed the competition with Apple as "a long and painful process," emphasizing that Xiaomi has "long given up on the possibility of a quick victory" and considers itself a "long-distance runner." This long-term perspective suggests the company is prepared for initial setbacks in its strategic pivot.
Looming Competitive Pressure
Looking ahead, the competitive pressures for Xiaomi are set to intensify. Kuo’s report also highlighted that by 2026, Xiaomi will face a dual challenge in the mid-to-high-end market not only from Apple but also from a resurgent Huawei Technologies Co. This suggests that the battle for market share in China's premium smartphone segment will only become more difficult.