Goldman Sachs published its China New Energy Vehicle Weekly Chartbook for Week 8 of 2026 on February 25, with data covering the period of February 16–22. The timing makes the report particularly instructive — and, for the uninitiated, potentially alarming. Orders across key NEV brands collapsed 77% year-on-year and 40% week-on-week during the Chinese New Year holiday window. But before the bears pile in, Goldman's analysts are quick to flag a critical caveat: the distortion is largely a calendar artifact, not a demand cliff.

The CNY Distortion Effect

The sharp year-on-year declines are "due to timing of CNY," Goldman notes, explaining that the holiday fell in weeks 5–6 in 2025 versus weeks 7–8 in 2026. That base-effect mismatch makes the raw numbers look catastrophic when they are, in reality, a seasonal wash. Total combined orders across tracked brands came in at just 30,450 units for the week — compared with 50,950 units the prior week and 65,830 units two weeks earlier.

Still, even after stripping out the holiday noise, the data offer a granular read on which brands are holding ground and which are losing it.

Brand-Level Divergence: Nio and Tesla Outperform on YTD Basis

On a year-to-date basis through Week 8, the picture is more telling. Nio leads the pack with YTD orders up 28% year-on-year, followed by Tesla at -9% and Li Auto at -14% — all of which Goldman characterizes as "relatively better trends." BYD, the market's dominant volume player with 203,985 YTD units, is running -44% on a YTD basis, though its absolute scale dwarfs all peers combined.

On a week-on-week basis during the CNY period, Xiaomi bucked the holiday drag with orders rising 22% wow — though Goldman cautions this figure is distorted by the calendar shift. Nio edged down just 2% wow, while Tesla fell 19% and XPeng dropped 41%.

The HIMA group — comprising Seres under the AITO brand, along with CheryLuxeed, SAIC Shangjie, BAIC STELATO, and JAC MAEXTRO — collectively logged 41,670 YTD units, down 28% year-on-year. The Huawei-ecosystem brands remain a meaningful but still secondary force relative to BYD's sheer volume dominance.

Dealer Discounts: The Price War Keeps Grinding

Perhaps more structurally significant than the holiday-distorted order data is what's happening at the dealer level. NEV average dealer discounts versus MSRP widened to 7.44% as of February 21, up from 7.35% on February 13 and sharply above the 6.11% recorded a year earlier. BYD's own dealer discount expanded to 5.19% from 4.93% the prior week — and more than doubled from the 2.70% seen in the same week of 2025.

The ICE segment tells a different story of structural pressure: average dealer discounts held at 19.47%, roughly flat week-on-week but meaningfully below the 21.08% recorded a year ago — suggesting that traditional automakers, while still deeply discounting, may have marginally stabilized their pricing behavior even as NEV competition intensifies.

The widening discount gap between NEV and ICE is a key competitive dynamic worth watching. NEV makers are increasingly encroaching on ICE price territory, and the data suggest that pressure is not abating.

Upstream Inputs: Lithium Stabilizes After January Peak

On the raw materials front, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices declined from their January peak but held flat week-on-week during the period. Battery cell prices were similarly stable. For now, the upstream cost environment is not adding incremental pressure on manufacturers — a modest relief given the intensifying downstream pricing competition.

What's Next on the Calendar

Goldman's analysts flag several near-term catalysts. Nio's ONVO L80 is expected to launch in February per industry forecasts. On March 1, NEV OEMs will release monthly volume figures — the first clean read on February demand free of holiday distortion. XPeng is set to launch its VLA 2.0 on March 2, while BYD has a technology conference slated for March. Further out, XPeng's GX and Zeekr's 8X are expected around mid-March, with Xiaomi's SU7 facelift penciled in for April.

The real test comes when March data hit. Until then, Week 8's numbers are best read as a seasonal footnote rather than a trend signal — though the relentless widening of dealer discounts suggests the underlying competitive pressure in China's EV market has no intention of taking a holiday.